election.princeton.edu

Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004. EV Popular vote margin: Clinton 2.1%. Final Meta-margin: Trump 0.7%. Senate: 48 D/I, 52R. Online App to Diagnose Gerrymandering. PEC posts on gerrymandering and redistricting. Three practical tests for gerrymandering (Stanford Law Review, 2016). Primaries: Early signs of a Trump nomination. Primaries: Simulating the 2016 GOP delegate process. General election: Final poll snapshots. The Continuing Success of Polls in 2016. Evaluating the forecasters, 2016.

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Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004 | election.princeton.edu Reviews

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A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004. EV Popular vote margin: Clinton 2.1%. Final Meta-margin: Trump 0.7%. Senate: 48 D/I, 52R. Online App to Diagnose Gerrymandering. PEC posts on gerrymandering and redistricting. Three practical tests for gerrymandering (Stanford Law Review, 2016). Primaries: Early signs of a Trump nomination. Primaries: Simulating the 2016 GOP delegate process. General election: Final poll snapshots. The Continuing Success of Polls in 2016. Evaluating the forecasters, 2016.

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Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004 | election.princeton.edu Reviews

https://election.princeton.edu

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004. EV Popular vote margin: Clinton 2.1%. Final Meta-margin: Trump 0.7%. Senate: 48 D/I, 52R. Online App to Diagnose Gerrymandering. PEC posts on gerrymandering and redistricting. Three practical tests for gerrymandering (Stanford Law Review, 2016). Primaries: Early signs of a Trump nomination. Primaries: Simulating the 2016 GOP delegate process. General election: Final poll snapshots. The Continuing Success of Polls in 2016. Evaluating the forecasters, 2016.

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election.princeton.edu

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About PEC and the Meta-Analysis (FAQ)

http://election.princeton.edu/faq

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004. EV Popular vote margin: Clinton 2.1%. Final Meta-margin: Trump 0.7%. Senate: 48 D/I, 52R. Online App to Diagnose Gerrymandering. PEC posts on gerrymandering and redistricting. Three practical tests for gerrymandering (Stanford Law Review, 2016). Primaries: Early signs of a Trump nomination. Primaries: Simulating the 2016 GOP delegate process. General election: Final poll snapshots. The Continuing Success of Polls in 2016. Evaluating the forecasters, 2016.

2

Presidential prediction 2012 – final

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/presidential-prediction-2012-final

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004. As of August 23, 12:03AM EDT:. Snapshot (99 state polls). Meta-margin: Clinton 5.3%. Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 91%, Bayesian 95%. Senate snapshot (49 polls): Dem Ind:. Meta-margin: D 2.7%. Online App to Diagnose Gerrymandering. 2016 House and Senate. FAQ (Mar. 2016). Three practical tests for gerrymandering (Stanford Law Review, 2016). Comparing Meta-analyses, 2004/2008/2012/2016. Simulating the 2016 GOP delegate process. 2014 code, data,.

3

Overreacting to Ebola

http://election.princeton.edu/2014/10/28/overreacting-to-ebola

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004. As of August 19, 12:03PM EDT:. Snapshot (97 state polls). Meta-margin: Clinton 5.5%. Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 78%, Bayesian 89%. Senate snapshot: Dem Ind:. Meta-margin: D 2.1%. Online App to Diagnose Gerrymandering. 2016 House and Senate. FAQ (Mar. 2016). Three practical tests for gerrymandering (Stanford Law Review, 2016). Comparing Meta-analyses, 2004/2008/2012/2016. Simulating the 2016 GOP delegate process. Sam at The American Prospect.

4

The disappearing Bradley effect

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/09/27/the-disappearing-bradley-effect

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004. As of August 19, 12:03PM EDT:. Snapshot (97 state polls). Meta-margin: Clinton 5.5%. Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 78%, Bayesian 89%. Senate snapshot: Dem Ind:. Meta-margin: D 2.1%. Online App to Diagnose Gerrymandering. 2016 House and Senate. FAQ (Mar. 2016). Three practical tests for gerrymandering (Stanford Law Review, 2016). Comparing Meta-analyses, 2004/2008/2012/2016. Simulating the 2016 GOP delegate process. Sam at The American Prospect.

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Surveys and Polls | Will Hillary Win

https://www.willhillarywin.com/tagged/surveys-and-polls

News about the Democratic Party and the 2016 Presidential election. News about the Republican Party and the 2016 Presidential election. News on the latest polls about Hillary Clinton and the 2016 Presidential election. Get involved in the 2016 Presidential Election. Op-Ed pieces about Hillary Clinton and the 2016 Presidential election. News about electing the first female President Hillary Rodham Clinton! News about Hillary Clinton and campaign team and strategy. Hillary Clinton’s Events. News about Hill...

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Sam Wang: Founder, Princeton Election Consortium | Conversations with Thinkers

https://chrisriback.com/2014/09/28/sam-wang-founder-princeton-election-consortium

I've been a journalist, writer, reporter, author, producer, blogger, marketer. I still am. I have one wife, three kids and several friends. Some of them will vouch for me. So will my wife. Important read: Globalization and tech need saving from themselves. Business could have answers weforum.org/agenda/2016/08. Cc 2 days ago. Don’t Tell Amazon wp.me/p529Mw-IJ. Conversation with Taegan Goddard: Outcomes Look Bleak for Republicans. Conversation with Former White House Economic Adviser Austan Goolsbee.

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Princeton Election Consortium | Conversations with Thinkers

https://chrisriback.com/tag/princeton-election-consortium

I've been a journalist, writer, reporter, author, producer, blogger, marketer. I still am. I have one wife, three kids and several friends. Some of them will vouch for me. So will my wife. Important read: Globalization and tech need saving from themselves. Business could have answers weforum.org/agenda/2016/08. Cc 2 days ago. Don’t Tell Amazon wp.me/p529Mw-IJ. Conversation with Taegan Goddard: Outcomes Look Bleak for Republicans. Conversation with Former White House Economic Adviser Austan Goolsbee.

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This data set is taken from the Iowa Electronic Markets. The stable fits (taken from the latest 180 days) now show alpha close to the range seen in financial markets. Fit is shown for the Republican data. Data scaled by 1 days. Last data point on Mon 3 Nov 2008. Probability of McCain win in November 0.00113203. Probability of Obama win in November 0.999239. Here are similar calculations based on a sample of only the last 90 days. Probability of McCain win in November 0.00313155.

marktheballot.blogspot.com

Mark the Ballot: September 2013

http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2013_09_01_archive.html

Psephology by the numbers. Saturday, September 7, 2013. 455 to 54.5 in the Coalition's favour. 46 to 54 in the Coalition's favour. 46 to 54 in the Coalition's favour. Which gives an aggregation. At this point in the blog, it is my normal practice to remind people that I anchor the above Bayesian aggregation. Who seeks to anchor his Bayesian models with respect to the outcome of past elections regularly produces an aggregated poll that tracks well below the vast majority of individual poll results]. Thurs...

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A New Jersey Farmer Blog: Where Democracy Lives: October 2014

http://anjfarmer.blogspot.com/2014_10_01_archive.html

A New Jersey Farmer Blog: Where Democracy Lives. Opinion, Commentary, Fun. Sunday, October 26, 2014. Polls 1 Issues 0. The Republicans are surging on the prediction markets. Leading pundits to write that the Senate races are all but over. But Michelle Nunn, the Democrat, now has a 3 point lead. In the latest poll for the Georgia Senate race. President Obama, though, seems to be a real drag on Democratic candidates. Who are running from him as fast as they ran to him in 2012. 10 points in Alaska. By frami...

statisti.ca

Trump Wins The Presidency Against All Odds - Statistica

https://statisti.ca/2016/11/09/trump-wins-presidency-against-all-odds

Trump Wins The Presidency Against All Odds. On Nov 9, 2016 in Politics. Trump Wins The Presidency Against All Odds. Early this morning, Donald Trump surpassed 270 electoral votes. To become the presumable 45th president of the United States of America. Hillary Clinton, his opponent, was a heavy favorite by almost every measurement, but lost by what currently appears to be a significant margin. New York Times Upshot. That he would “eat a bug” if Trump won more than 240 electoral votes. Wel...It is totally...

adviceunasked.blogspot.com

Advice Unasked: September 2014

http://adviceunasked.blogspot.com/2014_09_01_archive.html

Got to kick at the darkness till it bleeds daylight". Tuesday, September 30, 2014. The Senate is Balanced on a Knife Edge! My favorite elections analysis site, Sam Wang's Princeton Electoral Consortium. Informs us that the Senate is balanced on a knife edge. Five races, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, and Louisiana. Are most likely to tip the balance now, and possibly Georgia and North Carolina. So get out there. If you have money, donate. If you live in one of those states, volunteer. Me, back in 2013.

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election.princeton.edu

Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004. EV Popular vote margin: Clinton 2.1%. Final Meta-margin: Trump 0.7%. Senate: 48 D/I, 52R. Online App to Diagnose Gerrymandering. PEC posts on gerrymandering and redistricting. Three practical tests for gerrymandering (Stanford Law Review, 2016). Primaries: Early signs of a Trump nomination. Primaries: Simulating the 2016 GOP delegate process. General election: Final poll snapshots. The Continuing Success of Polls in 2016. Evaluating the forecasters, 2016.

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