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johnbeieler.org -&nbspjohnbeieler Resources and Information. | johnbeieler.org Reviews

https://johnbeieler.org

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1

John Beieler

http://johnbeieler.org/blog/page/2

PhD Student in Political Science. Actor Codes in GDELT. Which indicates the United States military. The complexity of the actor code, then, refers to how many of these three character codes are chained together. Using the Python code available here. I iterated over the dataset and identified each unique actor code in the data, along with how many times the unique code appeared. The resulting data is available here. The results indicate that there are 22,857. GDELT, Big Data, and Theory. As someone who ha...

2

Using SQL, pandas, and Python to Work With Data - John Beieler

http://johnbeieler.org/blog/2013/06/06/using-sql

PhD Student in Political Science. Using SQL, Pandas, and Python to Work With Data. Easier subsetting of data. Yes, another post about GDELT. But this one can apply to other datasets, too. In an earlier post. I wrote about how to start subsetting the GDELT data. Using Python. Others also wrote similar. All while avoiding the actual setup of a SQL database. Style dataframes in Python. In addition to. The individuals at y-hat. Built a SQL interface for. Dataframes in a library called. Is rather easy, and fo...

3

Protest Behavior and Ramadan - John Beieler

http://johnbeieler.org/blog/2013/07/16/protest-behavior-and-ramadan

PhD Student in Political Science. Protest Behavior and Ramadan. There’s been a fair amount of discussion. Recently about whether the start of Ramadan will lead to a decrease in protest behavior in locations such as Egypt and Turkey. While I don’t have a forecast to offer, I do have data from GDELT. That tracks protest activity dating back to 1979. With the help of Wikipedia. Which indicates a very weak, negative relationship between Ramadan and protest behavior. Caveats, notes, etc. Posted by John Beieler.

4

Noise in GDELT - John Beieler

http://johnbeieler.org/blog/2013/10/28/noise-and-gdelt

PhD Student in Political Science. The Signal and The Noise. One of the first things that I tell people about GDELT. Is that it is messy and noisy. This is not meant to be a dig at the dataset. This is just a reality of dealing with data on this scale that is generated by automated processes with little to no human supervision. One resulting aspect of this noisiness is a potentially high rate of false positives. Mike Ward and crew recently authored a blog post. For providing the exact queries used). T...

5

Prediction and Data Availability - John Beieler

http://johnbeieler.org/blog/2013/12/28/prediction-and-data-availability

PhD Student in Political Science. Prediction and Data Availability. Recently, there has been a large amount of news published regarding the ongoing conflicts in the Central African Republic and South Sudan. Jay Ulfelder has written. And elsewhere about the goals, evaluation, and implications of the various forecasts of politically-relevant events. I’ll have more to say in a later post about these issues, but I hope to start shedding a bit of light with an examination of prediction and data availabili...

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andrewhalterman.com andrewhalterman.com

The Good Judgement Project and Bayes’ Calculator – Andrew Halterman

https://andrewhalterman.com/2014/04/02/good-judgement-project-and-bayes/comment-page-1

Political science, text data, conflict forecasting, Python, and R. Three Tasks in Automated Text Geocoding. CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geocoding of Text Documents. ENCoRe Conference Paper: A New, Near-Real-Time Event Dataset and the Role of Versioning. Developments in Event Data. Data Churn and Data Versioning. Jay Ulfelder's blog. Three Tasks in Autom…. On CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geoc…. Bayes Rule Calculato…. On The Good Judgement Project and…. Access Event Data in…. On ISA 2014 Paper. April 2, 2014.

andrewhalterman.com andrewhalterman.com

GDELT – Andrew Halterman

https://andrewhalterman.com/category/gdelt

Political science, text data, conflict forecasting, Python, and R. Three Tasks in Automated Text Geocoding. CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geocoding of Text Documents. ENCoRe Conference Paper: A New, Near-Real-Time Event Dataset and the Role of Versioning. Developments in Event Data. Data Churn and Data Versioning. Jay Ulfelder's blog. Three Tasks in Autom…. On CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geoc…. Bayes Rule Calculato…. On The Good Judgement Project and…. Access Event Data in…. On ISA 2014 Paper. April 1, 2014.

andrewhalterman.com andrewhalterman.com

event data – Andrew Halterman

https://andrewhalterman.com/tag/event-data-2

Political science, text data, conflict forecasting, Python, and R. Three Tasks in Automated Text Geocoding. CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geocoding of Text Documents. ENCoRe Conference Paper: A New, Near-Real-Time Event Dataset and the Role of Versioning. Developments in Event Data. Data Churn and Data Versioning. Jay Ulfelder's blog. Three Tasks in Autom…. On CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geoc…. Bayes Rule Calculato…. On The Good Judgement Project and…. Access Event Data in…. On ISA 2014 Paper. August 26, 2015.

andrewhalterman.com andrewhalterman.com

Forecasting – Andrew Halterman

https://andrewhalterman.com/category/forecasting

Political science, text data, conflict forecasting, Python, and R. Three Tasks in Automated Text Geocoding. CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geocoding of Text Documents. ENCoRe Conference Paper: A New, Near-Real-Time Event Dataset and the Role of Versioning. Developments in Event Data. Data Churn and Data Versioning. Jay Ulfelder's blog. Three Tasks in Autom…. On CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geoc…. Bayes Rule Calculato…. On The Good Judgement Project and…. Access Event Data in…. On ISA 2014 Paper. April 2, 2014.

predictiveheuristics.com predictiveheuristics.com

Games on networks, with application to Thai politics | Predictive Heuristics

https://predictiveheuristics.com/2013/10/19/games-on-networks-with-application-to-thai-politics

Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 19, 2013. Games on networks, with application to Thai politics. The top rug shows the different parties that are in power in Thailand during the observation period, with markers for changes in power. The bottom plot shows conflictual events in Thailand from 1998 on. Six dead in shootout in Thai south. Thailand begins monitoring of Facebook, YouTube and LINE. Next post →. Predictive Heuristics is the Ward Lab's blog. We also live on this website. Here are our members.

predictiveheuristics.com predictiveheuristics.com

The right kind of variance | Predictive Heuristics

https://predictiveheuristics.com/2014/10/06/the-right-kind-of-variance

Blog by Ward Lab @ Duke U. October 6, 2014. The right kind of variance. Or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. The reason for this is obvious when you consider the underlying variance structure. First, to predict something that changes, say dissident-government conflict. The nature of relationships between political parties. You need predictors that change. In fact, with enough data, you are bound to find some correlations purely due to chance. So sometimes it’s good to have co...Coding ...

andrewhalterman.com andrewhalterman.com

ENCoRe Conference Paper: A New, Near-Real-Time Event Dataset and the Role of Versioning – Andrew Halterman

https://andrewhalterman.com/2014/11/08/encore-conference-event-data-and-versioning

Political science, text data, conflict forecasting, Python, and R. Three Tasks in Automated Text Geocoding. CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geocoding of Text Documents. ENCoRe Conference Paper: A New, Near-Real-Time Event Dataset and the Role of Versioning. Developments in Event Data. Data Churn and Data Versioning. Jay Ulfelder's blog. Three Tasks in Autom…. On CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geoc…. Bayes Rule Calculato…. On The Good Judgement Project and…. Access Event Data in…. On ISA 2014 Paper. November 8, 2014.

andrewhalterman.com andrewhalterman.com

ISA 2014 Paper – Andrew Halterman

https://andrewhalterman.com/2014/04/01/isa-2014-paper/comment-page-1

Political science, text data, conflict forecasting, Python, and R. Three Tasks in Automated Text Geocoding. CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geocoding of Text Documents. ENCoRe Conference Paper: A New, Near-Real-Time Event Dataset and the Role of Versioning. Developments in Event Data. Data Churn and Data Versioning. Jay Ulfelder's blog. Three Tasks in Autom…. On CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geoc…. Bayes Rule Calculato…. On The Good Judgement Project and…. Access Event Data in…. On ISA 2014 Paper. April 1, 2014.

andrewhalterman.com andrewhalterman.com

Event Data – Andrew Halterman

https://andrewhalterman.com/category/event-data

Political science, text data, conflict forecasting, Python, and R. Three Tasks in Automated Text Geocoding. CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geocoding of Text Documents. ENCoRe Conference Paper: A New, Near-Real-Time Event Dataset and the Role of Versioning. Developments in Event Data. Data Churn and Data Versioning. Jay Ulfelder's blog. Three Tasks in Autom…. On CLIFF-up: Easy, Automated Geoc…. Bayes Rule Calculato…. On The Good Judgement Project and…. Access Event Data in…. On ISA 2014 Paper. November 23, 2014.

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johnbeieler.org -&nbspjohnbeieler Resources and Information.

PhD Student in Political Science. Prediction and Data Availability. Recently, there has been a large amount of news published regarding the ongoing conflicts in the Central African Republic and South Sudan. Jay Ulfelder has written. And elsewhere about the goals, evaluation, and implications of the various forecasts of politically-relevant events. I’ll have more to say in a later post about these issues, but I hope to start shedding a bit of light with an examination of prediction and data availabili...

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